Arsenal remain slight overall favourites to win the UEFA Champions League this season (37.7per cent), just ahead of Bayern Munich (35.8per cent). Indeed, the Gunners are heavily favoured to progress past Atlético Madrid in the semifinals (74.9per cent). Catch all the action LIVE on SuperSport.
Reigning champions Paris SG have the third-highest probability of reaching a second consecutive final (37.2per cent), with Bayern Munich favoured with a 62.8per cent chance of eliminating Luis Enrique’s side in the semifinals.
Can Arsenal break Atlético’s resistance?
Arsenal have already beaten Atlético Madrid 4-0 this season, although a few things have changed since then. That victory, achieved back in October, was in a league phase game at the Emirates and during what would be a 10-game winning streak for the Gunners. Arteta’s side were humming, while Simeone was still searching for solutions with his.
It perhaps goes without saying that a game against Simeone’s Atlético in October is not the same as a European semi-final, played across two legs, at the business end of the season.
While the team from the Spanish capital have, at times, been unfairly tagged as a purely defensive team, there’s no doubting that Simeone’s side know when to flip the switch. Atlético have averaged 2.4 goals per game in the Champions League game this term, but have also used a low block more times than anyone else (458 times in 14 games), and more than Paris SG and Bayern Munich combined (449).
Arsenal’s quarterfinal tie of triumph over Sporting CP produced just one goal; their semifinal could be even more attritional.
WHAT THE STATS SAY
Atlético Madrid and Arsenal will meet for just the fourth time in European competition, with half of those coming in this season’s UEFA Champions League (2/4). The Gunners won 4-0 in a league phase meeting last October, which remains Atlético’s joint-heaviest defeat in the competition (lost by four on five occasions).
Arsenal and Atlético Madrid are the two teams that have played the most matches in the history of the European Cup/Champions League with ever winning the trophy: 223 and 190 respectively.
When playing at either the Vicente Calderón or the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Atlético Madrid have never lost at home to an English side in a UEFA Champions League knockout stage match (P6 W3 D3). All six of those were against different teams (Chelsea, Leicester, Liverpool, Man Utd, Man City & Tottenham).
This will be the 16th European Cup/UEFA Champions League semifinal tie between Spanish and English teams – the sides from England have progressed in nine of the previous 15 (60 per cent), as well as in four of the last five (the exception being Manchester City v Real Madrid in 2021-22).
Unbeaten in their last 12 (W10 D2), Arsenal are one game away from equalling their longest ever run without a defeat in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League: 13 games between March 2005 and April 2006. That previous run took them into the 2006 final (v Barcelona), which remains the only time they have reached the European Cup showpiece.
Atlético Madrid produced just 0.32 xG from open play in their defeat at the Emirates earlier this season, and hit the target only once – both their lowest totals in a UEFA Champions League match this season. Across their other 13 games in this edition, Atlético averaged 1.34 xG from open play and six shots on target per match.
Arsenal’s four games in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League this season have produced just five goals (4 for, 1 against), an average of 1.25 per game. Meanwhile, Atlético Madrid’s six knockout stage matches in this edition have had an average of 4.7 goals per game (28 – 17 for, 11 against).
When facing opposition build-up, Atlético Madrid have the ninth-highest per centage of time spent in a defensive low block (20.4 per cent) in this season’s UEFA Champions League (out of 36 teams). Indeed, Diego Simeone’s side also rank among the bottom 10 sides for per centage of time in a high defensive block (26.4 per cent - 27th).
Atleti v Arsenal 😤#UCL pic.twitter.com/9k2S1HYSFc
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) April 29, 2026
Atlético Madrid have averaged 374 high-intensity pressures per game in the UEFA Champions League this season, the fifth-most by any team in 2025-26. Indeed, Atlético’s average is almost 100 more than any of this year’s semifinalists, with Arsenal the closest side to them (281 per game).
Coming into the semifinal round, only Paris SG (7.8) have averaged more defensive line-breaking passes per game than Atlético Madrid (7.1) in this season’s UEFA Champions League. A total of 21 of their defensive line-breaking passes have been received by Giuliano Simeone, which is more than twice as many as any other Atlético player (10, Alexander Sørloth).
Half of Viktor Gyökeres’ goals for Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League (2/4) came in the second half of their 4-0 win against Atlético Madrid in October. However, Gyökeres hasn’t scored in any of his four knockout stage games in this edition and has had just six shots across those games – 28 players have had more shot attempts since the start of the round of 16.
Arsenal have averaged 2.6 goals and 2.3 xG per game when Bukayo Saka has played for them in the UEFA Champions League this season (8 matches), compared to just 1.5 goals and 1.8 xG per game when he has been absent (4 matches). Saka has produced more successful pull backs (3) in the competition this season than Gabriel Martinelli, Noni Madueke and Leandro Trossard combined (2).
Julián Álvarez’s nine goals this season are already the most by an Atlético Madrid player in a single European Cup/UEFA Champions League campaign. The Argentinean also leads all players in the 2025-26 edition for total high-intensity pressures (853), as well as the most per 90 (70 – min. 500 minutes played).
Antoine Griezmann has been directly involved in 24.2 per cent of Atlético Madrid’s goals in the UEFA Champions League (56/231 – 40 goals, 16 assists); the highest per centage by any player for a team who have scored 100+ goals in the competition’s history, just ahead of Lionel Messi for Barcelona (24.1 per cent).
In the 22 UEFA Champions League games that David Raya, William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães have started together, Arsenal have only conceded 11 goals (0.5 per game) and kept a clean sheet on 13 occasions (59 per cent).