In the years since South African clubs have been part of the northern hemisphere scene through the Vodacom URC and Investec Champions Cup, the elite European tournament has been dominated by French teams.
La Rochelle won it in the first two seasons, in the first of which there was no South African participation in the EPCR competitions, then along came Toulouse to reassert their long time stranglehold on what many regard as the top club competition in the world. In those three seasons it was always Leinster who were beaten in the final, with the Irish team thus being the bulwark against complete French domination and falling tantalisingly short each time.
Last season Leinster weren’t in the decider and it was the turn of an English team, Northampton Saints, to try and dent the French hegemony. They fell even more short than Leinster did in the previous three seasons, with their win over Leinster in the semifinal being regarded as a major upset. It would be an upset if Toulon go to Dublin on Saturday and beat Leinster, which would set up the possibility of an all French final. Toulon, although not quite the Galactico team they once were, certainly showed their teeth when they beat Glasgow Warriors at The Scotstoun in their quarterfinal three weeks ago.
THIS IS THE COMPETITION LEINSTER ARE FOCUSED ON
You could argue that seeing as Glasgow comfortably beat Leinster in the URC this season then Toulon can beat Leinster. But it is not as simple as that. Leinster haven’t been in the imperious form this season that they have been for most of the past seasons, and are struggling to make the top four in the URC, yet this is the competition they are most focused on.
As their experienced hooker Dan Sheehan put it in the UK media before last week’s URC defeat to Leinster in Treviso, the unexpected stumble in last year’s semifinal really hurt Leinster. Their determination not to be caught cold in the semi, as they thought they were last year, is why they have been going at relatively full strength in most of their recent URC games.
Whether that is the solution remains to be seen. The feeling in Glasgow is that their team has run out of puff because so many of their players were fully committed to the Guinness Six Nations with Scotland. That may turn out to be the case with Leinster too, with last week’s defeat in Treviso amounting to a warning sign.
We will only really know though once Leinster do get deeper into the business end of the season. What we do know is that playing so regularly with a full strength side at this juncture is new territory for them, and it could either turn out to be a good decision on their part or something that will be filed as a lesson learned to drive another adjustment to the approach next year.
TOULON WERE LUCKY TO BEAT THE STORMERS
On the evidence of their win over Glasgow, Toulon look like they head to the AVIVA Stadium on Saturday with a chance of knocking out the second most successful team in the history of the competition. However, they were decidedly unfortunate to get home as winners in their home round of 16 game against the Stormers on the Easter Weekend so much depends on which game you view as the real indicator of who Toulon are. And also maybe where Glasgow are following the accumulation of so much wear tear which until a few weeks ago had hitherto been a statement season for them.
What is obvious though is that if Leinster do win, which realistically they should be expected to on their home ground, it leaves Bordeaux as the last French team standing, with Johann van Graan’s Bath carrying the responsibility of ensuring that for the first time in a long time there will be no French team in the final in Sunday’s game.
MINOR INJURY CRISIS FOR BATH
Bath do have a deeper squad than most teams outside of the big French clubs, as evidenced by them only just losing when they fielded a second string team against Northampton Saints in a top of the log Gallagher Premiership match last weekend. However, that is not to say that coach Van Graan doesn’t sit with injury problems, with 18-year-old England Students scrumhalf Isaac Mears poised to play in place of Ben Spencer if the latter doesn’t recover from injury in time.
The centres Max Ojomoh and Cameron Redpath also reportedly face late fitness tests, as does Joe Cokanasiga, who has a leg injury. But it is who wears the No 9 that could have the greatest bearing on Bath’s chances as Mears only signed his first professional contract with Bath a few weeks ago.
The Bath kingpin is Scotland’s British and Irish Lions flyhalf Finn Russell, although Springbok World Cup winner Thomas du Toit, destined to return to the Hollywoodbets Sharks next season, might be even more important as Russell’s magic is more likely to materialise if he has front foot ball to play with.
Bordeaux of course are loaded with French internationals and at home are going to be particularly hard to beat.
ULSTER SHOULD MAKE CHALLENGE CUP FINAL
Along with the two Champions Cup games on Saturday and Sunday there are two Challenge Cup semifinals involving URC teams. The Dragons have a mountain to climb as they go to Montpellier in search of what for them would be a rare appearance in a final, but Ulster have a fair chance of beating Exeter Chiefs given they are playing at home and rested their top team in preparation for this game when they lost to Munster in the URC last week.
INVESTEC CHAMPIONS CUP SEMI-FINALS
Leinster v Toulon (Dublin, Saturday 16.00)
Prediction: Leinster to win by 10
Bordeaux-Begles v Bath (Bordeaux, Sunday 16.00)
Prediction: Bordeaux to win by at least 10
EPCR Challenge Cup semifinals
Ulster v Exeter (Belfast, Saturday 18.30)
Prediction: Ulster to win by 8
Montpellier v Dragons (Montpellier 13.30)
Prediction: Montpellier to win by at least 18